Verona, March 3, 2025. Turning the inflationary pressure generated by the production crisis of Italian olive oil into an opportunity for premium repositioning on the market — this is the “good resolution” for the Made in Italy olive oil supply chain that emerged today at SOL2EXPO (Veronafiere, March 2–4) during the conference dedicated to “The Olive Oil Market in Italy and Europe: Realities and Prospects.” According to the analysis by the SOL2EXPO-Nomisma Observatory, presented during the event, the average price increase in large-scale retail trade (GDO), driven by the scarcity of supply at both national and global levels, has already reduced the price gap between EU-sourced extra virgin olive oil (which continues to be the most sold category, with a 62% volume share) and “100% Italian” EVO from 47% in 2022 to 20% in 2024. This narrowing of the price differential has made products made from Italian olives more “appealing” to consumers, whose shelf price is rightly higher.
According to Denis Pantini, Head of Agribusiness at Nomisma: “In such a turbulent period for the market, the hope is that Italian consumers will develop greater awareness of the real value of extra virgin olive oil, coming to recognize EVO as a ‘princely Food’ (with a capital F, given its health and organoleptic properties) of the Mediterranean Diet — not merely as a condiment or cooking ingredient.”
On the Modern Distribution front (based on NielsenIQ data) — the main sales channel for olive oil within Italy — the past three years have been marked by the combined effects of inflation and exceptionally low production levels, which have led to a 10% reduction in extra virgin olive oil sales volumes (between 2022 and 2024), against a 64% increase in total sales value.
As for foreign markets, Italian EVO exports now reach 160 countries in total. However, as reported by the SOL2EXPO-Nomisma Observatory, 65% of the total export value is concentrated in the top five markets, led by the United States (32%), followed — at a distance — by Germany (15.5%), France (7.9%), Canada (4.7%), and Japan (5.3%).
Nonetheless, there are positive signs of momentum. Between January and November 2024, Made in Italy olive oil recorded above-average performance in Germany (+58% for Italian exports vs. +42% for total imports), South Korea (+141% vs. +86%), Australia (+192% vs. +106%), and Mexico (+99% vs. +82%). Extra virgin olive oil, in particular, achieved notable growth also in volume terms in South Korea and Germany, where quantities rose by 82% and 19.4%, respectively, compared to 2023 figures, alongside value increases of +152.6% for Seoul and +68% for Berlin.
Over the past 20 years, global olive oil consumption has grown “step by step” (from 2.7 to 3 million tons), showing stronger growth rates in non-EU countries, whose share has risen from 28% to 57%. Consumption has increased in markets not “traditionally” known for production, while it has declined in Italy, Spain, and Greece.
Among top consumer markets, demand has grown in the United States (+35% between 2014 and 2024), Brazil (+42%), and France (+6%). While Europe and North America remain the main importing areas, there are very interesting growth signals in South America and Asia, with double-digit import increases between 2013 and 2023 in Chile and Peru (+15%), Colombia (+13%), South Korea (+12%), and Indonesia (+11%).
Speakers at the conference included Giulia Ventura, Business Development Manager for Agrifood at Alibaba.com Italy; Anna Cane, President of the Olive Oil Group at Assitol; and Tullio Forcella, President of Federolio.
With a comprehensive overview of product, technology, education, and tourism, Sol2Expo – Full Olive Experience (March 2–4, Veronafiere) shines a spotlight on the entire Italian olive oil supply chain — from soil to table, from production to processing — with focus areas ranging from oil to olives, by-products, and derivatives, all the way to wellness and cosmetics.
The business-oriented core — featuring an inbound program for specialized foreign operators — is complemented by a rich consumer program including cooking shows, workshops, and pairing tastings for the general public and enthusiasts, along with direct purchase opportunities.