Verona, March 2, 2026. A market increasingly influenced by climate change and trade tensions, but with positive signs for Made-in-Italy EVO oil—provided the production gap is addressed while continuing to strengthen its positioning. This was the summary of the conference “Market Challenges for Olive Oil in a Changing World,” held today at Veronafiere during the second day of SOL Expo. The event featured discussions with Abderraouf Laajimi, Deputy Director of the International Olive Council (IOC), Agriculture Ministry Undersecretary Patrizio La Pietra, and Joe Profaci, Director of the North American Olive Oil Association, alongside interventions from Veronafiere President Federico Bricolo, ICE Agency President Matteo Zoppas, and Daniele Erasmi, President of Fiesa-Confesercenti. Evita Gandini, Head of Market Insight at Nomisma, also presented the consumer survey conducted for SOL Expo 2026.
“It is a very complex moment for our sector,” stated Joe Profaci, Director of the North American Olive Oil Association. “The U.S. administration views tariffs as an important part of the economy, so they are likely to remain. As an association, we are doing our best to convince the government that an exemption is needed for a healthy product like olive oil, whose domestic production is insufficient to meet demand. Meanwhile, we must understand the impact on olive oil. In 2024, prices rose by about 25%, but sales in major retail fell only by 8%, showing a market less elastic than expected. Purchases decreased mainly among lower-income families, while higher-income households increased their consumption.”
In this context, promotion plays an increasingly crucial role, including within the National Olive Plan (Piano Olivicolo Nazionale, PON), which will be reviewed in the coming days by the State-Regions Conference. On this topic, Agriculture Ministry Undersecretary Patrizio La Pietra stated: “Within the €300 million under discussion for the olive sector, we have allocated an initial €10 million specifically for promotion, along with €175 million over the next five years within the CMO framework to support the plan’s objectives. Following the model of the wine promotion campaign, we will also produce a spot for olive oil. What matters is that actions are directed toward achieving the objectives agreed upon with the government and stakeholders, including production-related targets.”
According to data presented by Abderraouf Laajimi, Deputy Director of the IOC, following the disastrous 2023/24 olive campaign at 2.58 million tons and the record 2024/25 harvest at 3.57 million tons, the current campaign is expected to close at a balanced 3.4 million tons. “Price dynamics are closely linked to production,” explained Laajimi. “These are not speculative phenomena: volatility is a structural feature of this market. But we must understand and emphasize the impact of climate change in making these variations more frequent and intense, and work to stabilize production internationally. When stocks carry over from year to year and production recovers, we can achieve more stable prices and long-term stability. To do this,” Laajimi concluded, “we need to work together to make this sector more resilient through improved irrigation, climate-resilient varieties, and more sustainable practices.”
For Matteo Zoppas, President of ICE Agency: “Olive oil is experiencing a dynamic phase. On the export front, we see increasing volumes but a contraction in revenue value. We must focus even more on promotion and help companies and products tell their story better. The goal is to consolidate positioning and move out of the commodity category, making our offering less replaceable.”
SOL Expo (Veronafiere, March 1–3, Hall 12) is the international showcase dedicated to the olive and olive oil supply chain. With a unique format in Italy, the event serves as a B2B2C platform connecting professionals, companies, restaurants, and informed consumers. It is a hub for business, education, and culture, highlighting Italian olive oil excellence with a strong international focus and engagement with the public.